Mortgage rates to stay above 6% through 2025, Fannie Mae says (2024)

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Mortgage rates to stay above 6% through 2025, Fannie Mae says? ›

What will mortgage rates look like in five years? There are no sources for officially projected interest rates in five years, but the Mortgage Bankers Association does predict rates on 30-year mortgages will drop to 5.9% by the end of 2025. Fannie Mae predicts a 6.6% rate.

Prediction of Mortgage Rates for 2025

Keep in mind that inflation is still a factor, and mortgage rates may continue to hover around 6%. Here are some predictions for 2025 from key players and industry associations in the mortgage space: Fannie Mae: 6.1% Mortgage Bankers Association: 5.9%

This aligns with projections from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), which anticipates the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to end 2024 at 6.1%, with a further decline to 5.5% by the end of 2025.

This reflects an upward revision in Fannie's analysis: One month prior, the mortgage giant expected rates would fall to 6.4% by year-end, and just a few months ago, it forecasted rates would dip below 6% by the end of this year. All told, Fannie Mae predicts mortgage rates will average 7% in 2024 and 6.7% in 2025.

Now, by the end of 2025, the Fed expects a policy rate of 4.1 per cent, according to the median of their projections, implying an additional four quarter of a percentage point cuts next year. Four Fed policymakers see no rate cuts at all this year, the fresh projections show.

Last year, the White House projection for bill rates in 2030 was 2.4%. Such a level would be much higher than has been typical since the turn of the century. Three-month bill rates averaged around 1.5% over that period.

By reducing its bond purchases, the Fed will reduce the supply of money in the market and put upward pressure on long-term interest rates, such as mortgage rates. Therefore, unless inflation slows down significantly in the coming months, it is unlikely that mortgage rates will fall back to 3% anytime soon.

However, increases should slow between 2024 and 2026, and rates may even decline in 2027. Among the factors that could impact mortgage rates in the next 5 years are inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and economic growth. Homebuyers should consider locking in a low mortgage rate now, as rates are expected to rise soon.”

Once you find a rate that is an ideal fit for your budget, lock in the rate as soon as possible. There is no way to predict with certainty whether a rate will go up or down in the weeks or even months it sometimes takes to close your loan.

What is Fannie Mae prediction for 2024? ›

In particular, we now expect market purchase volumes to be $1.4 trillion in 2024, representing 14 percent growth from 2023 but a downward revision of $35 billion from last month's forecast. In 2025, we expect purchase volumes to grow a further 13 percent.

While McBride had initially expected mortgage rates to fall to 5.75 percent by late 2024, the economic reality means they're likely to hover in the range of 6.25 percent to 6.4 percent by the end of the year.

Fannie Mae Fixed Rate Mortgages are popular among homebuyers and homeowners who prefer the security of knowing that their mortgage payments will remain the same over time, regardless of changes in the broader economy or fluctuations in interest rates.

Here's where three experts predict mortgage rates are heading: Around 6% or below by Q1 2025: "Rates hit 8% towards the end of last year, and right now we are seeing rates closer to 6.875%," says Haymore. "By the first quarter of 2025, mortgage rates could potentially fall below the 6% threshold, or maybe even lower."

It also recommended further cuts in 2025, taking the rate as low as 3.5%. “Our recommendation is for 50-75 basis points [0.5-0.75% points] this year, plus we project and this is also this is our recommendation of 100 basis points [1% point] cuts in 2025," Mr Abbas said.

Mortgage rates are currently expected to continue trending down through 2024 and into 2025. The Mortgage Bankers Association thinks that 30-year mortgage rates could fall to 5.9% in 2025.

While the Fed maintained its target rate in the 5.25 percent to 5.50 percent range at its June 2024 meeting, the central bank hasn't yet declared victory in its fight against inflation. However, it seems the Fed is done raising its target rate in this cycle and forecasts one rate reduction later in 2024.

Interest rate futures are contracts that allow buyers and sellers to lock in rates on an interest-bearing asset like a government bond or interbank lending rate.

When inflation is running high, the Fed raises those short-term rates to slow the economy and reduce pressure on prices. But higher interest rates make it more expensive for banks to borrow, so they raise their rates on consumer loans, including mortgages, to compensate.